Analysis of grey theory in railway passenger traffic volume forecast
-
摘要: 针对传统灰色预测模型存在对历史数据依赖性强、容错性小及抗干扰能力差的局限性,将无偏灰色理论与残差验证理论引入预测模型,从趋势曲线灰色拟合与状态分类方式上对传统灰色模型进行改进,提出无偏灰色预测铁路客运量方法;同时,对铁路客运量预测方法从定性预测和定量预测两个方面进行阐述并对其优缺点进行分析。依据建立的无偏灰色预测铁路客运量模型,以1997—2016年铁路客运量为基础数据,对铁路“十三五”时期的数据进行预测,通过残差检验和结果分析,其预测精度明显高于BP神经网络预测。Abstract: In view of the limitations of traditional grey prediction model, which strongly depended on historical data, had small fault tolerance and poor anti-interference ability, unbiased grey theory and residual verification theory were introduced to the prediction model, and the traditional grey model was improved from the trend curve grey fitting and state classification method, the unbiased grey prediction of railway passenger traffic volume was proposed. The forecast method of railway passenger traffic volume was expounded from two aspects of qualitative prediction and quantitative prediction, and its advantages and disadvantages were analyzed. Based on the unbiased grey forecast model of railway passenger traffic volume and the data of railway passenger traffic volume in 1997-2016, the data of railway during the "13th Five-Year" period were predicted by the residual test and the result analysis. The prediction accuracy is obviously higher than that of the BP neural network prediction.
-
-
[1] 王乃珍,王福田. 基于灰色区间预测模型的轨道不平顺状态预测[J]. 铁路计算机应用, 2015,24(1):1-3. [2] 林晓言, 陈有孝. 基于灰色- 马尔可夫链改进方法的铁路货运量预测研究[J]. 铁道学报,2005,27(3):15-22. [3] 沈家军, 王 炜, 陈 峻. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的近期公交客流量预测[J]. 公路交通科技, 2007, 24(9):120-123. [4] 曹鸿飞,张 铭,李 平. 灰色动态模型群在城市轨道交通客流预测中的应用研究[J]. 铁路计算机应用,2012,21(3):1-4. [5] 王瑞峰,陈旺斌. 基于灰色神经网络的S700K 转辙机故障诊断方法研究[J]. 铁道学报,2016,38(6):68-72. [6] LIU Sifeng,DENG Julong. The Range Suitable for GM(1,1)[J]. The Journal of Grey System,1999,11(1):131-138. [7] DENG Julong. Properites of Relational Space for Grey Systems[C]. Beijing: China Ocean Press,1988. [8] 张和平,陈齐海. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的网络舆情预测研究[J]. 情报科学,2018,36(1):75-79. [9] 马 啸,李 露. 基于改进灰色GM(1,1)模型的三峡库区工业废水量预测[J]. 环境工程,2018(1):162-167. [10] 谢建文,张元标,王志伟. 基于无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫链法的铁路货运量预测研究[J]. 铁道学报,2009, 31(1):1-5. [11] 高素芳,刘凤莲. 灰色预测模型的改进在城市需水量预测中的应用[J]. 价值工程,2010(22):95-97. -
期刊类型引用(3)
1. 张楠乔,耿鹏. FAO互联互通系统保护区段解锁优化方案研究. 铁路通信信号工程技术. 2023(09): 61-65 . 百度学术
2. 张海,倪少权,吕苗苗. 基于元胞自动机模型的地铁列车折返间隔分析. 交通运输工程与信息学报. 2021(02): 37-45 . 百度学术
3. 张大涛. 城市轨道交通信号系统保护区段设置的研究. 控制与信息技术. 2020(02): 85-90 . 百度学术
其他类型引用(1)
计量
- 文章访问数: 168
- HTML全文浏览量: 3
- PDF下载量: 33
- 被引次数: 4