Abstract:
To study the impact of equipment availability on Train Control Center (TCC) and predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of TCC, reduce the occurrence rate of TCC failures, and ensure safe vehicle operation, this paper constructed a TCC dynamic fault tree model. By introducing Markov theory and transforming it into a Markov model, the paper designed a TCC availability evaluation and RUL prediction method, considered the failure rate and common cause failure of TCC, used the D-S (Dempster Shafer) evidence theory to fuse the failure data and obtain the initial failure interval probability of TCC equipment. On this basis, the paper used a hyper-ellipsoid model to constrain the initial failure interval probability of the equipment and obtain a more accurate probability of the bottom event failure interval, drew a Markov state transition diagram, derived the functional relationship between TCC availability and RUL using a matrix, and also considered maintenance factors while calculating availability. The paper took the data of a certain TCC on the Lanzhou-Urumqi passenger dedicated line as an analysis case, used this method to calculate the availability of TCC and its various equipment, and predicted the RUL of TCC. The results show that compared with general methods, this method has the same evaluation results, but richer evaluation information.