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基于保护层分析法的铁路安全风险量化评价模型

Quantitative evaluation model of railway safety risk based on layers of protection analysis

  • 摘要: 为实现铁路运输安全风险定量评价,支撑铁路运输安全风险分级管控和精准预警,提出基于保护层分析理论的铁路安全风险评价模型。定义了保护层概念,即铁路运输生产各环节采取的人工或自动检测监测手段;通过风险初始事件固有发生频率和保护层失效频率确定风险发生的频率,并从直接经济损失、人员伤亡、行车中断3个方面定量评估风险造成的损失,从而精确计算风险值。以某货运车站道岔故障的风险评估作为示例进行模型评价试验。结果表明,该模型能够对铁路运输安全风险进行量化评价,并保证评价质量。

     

    Abstract: In order to realize the quantitative evaluation of railway transportation safety risk, support the hierarchical management and accurate early warning of railway transportation safety risk, this paper proposed a quantitative evaluation model of railway safety risk based on the theory of layers of protection analysis, defined the concept of protection layer, which is the manual or automatic detection and monitoring means adopted in all links of railway transportation production. The risk frequency was determined by the natural frequency of the risk initial event and the failure frequency of the protective layer, and the loss caused by the risk was quantitatively evaluated from three aspects: direct economic loss, casualties and interruption of driving, to make sure the risk value can be calculated accurately. The risk assessment of turnout failure in a freight station was used as an example to conduct model evaluation test. The results show that the model can quantitatively evaluate the safety risk of railway transportation, and ensure the evaluation quality.

     

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