Abstract: Because it is difficult to quantify the proportion of passengers who receive the delay information and the proportion of passengers who are willing to change the travel plan in case of train delay, the distribution of passenger flow cannot be mastered, and the emergency treatment measures taken lack of data basis. In order to estimate the impact of train delay on the distribution of network passenger flow, this paper analyzed the propagation mechanism of delay, determined the number and space-time position of passengers affected by delay, studied their travel choice behavior after receiving the information of train delay, built the model of passenger travel scheme choice under the condition of delay based on MNL model, predicts the redistribution of affected passenger flow on the network and developed the application system. The example shows that the model can accurately estimate the redistribution of the affected passenger flow, and it has positive significance for the emergency disposal of train delay emergencies.