基于EMD的SVR方法在铁路客流预测中的应用
SVR method based on EMD applied to railway passenger flow prediction
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摘要: 客流预测是铁路客运运营管理的重要依据,铁路客流具有非线性、非平稳的特点,传统预测模型很难得到满意的结果,因此利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法对客流进行自适应的分解,利用支持向量回归机(SVR)对固有模态函数(IMF)进行预测,建立基于EMD的SVR铁路客流预测模型。利用Matlab对SVR预测、BP神经网络预测和基于EMD的SVR预测模型进行仿真实验,得出3种预测模型的平均相对误差,分别为22%、25%和13%。结果表明,基于EMD的SVR方法的预测精度明显高于另外两种预测方法,能够有效地提高铁路客流预测准确性。Abstract: Passenger flow forecast is an important basis for railway passenger transport operation and management. The railway passenger flow has the characteristics of non-linear and non-stationary, and the traditional prediction model is difficult to get satisfactory results, so this paper used Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to decompose the passenger flow adaptively, used Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict the Inherent Mode function(IMF), and established the SVR passenger flow prediction model based on EMD.The paper used Matlab to simulate SVR prediction, BP neural network prediction and SVR prediction model based on EMD. The average relative errors of the three prediction models were 22%, 25% and 13%, respectively.The simulation results show that the prediction accuracy of SVR method based on EMD is significantly higher than the other two methods, which can effectively improve the accuracy of railway passenger flow prediction.