铁路客流总量预测方法研究

基金项目: 中国铁道科学研究院电子计算技术研究所基金项目（DZYF-14- 16）。

详细信息

Forecasting method for total railway passenger flow

1.
Institute of Computing Technologies, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
2.
Department of Transportation Operations, China Railway, Beijing 100844, China

摘要: 客流预测是铁路运输进行运力布局，产品调整的重要基础。预测的科学性、精确度将直接影响运输生产，因此努力提高客流预测的精度与可用性，是目前运输学科的一个热门研究领域。本文提出基于历史与预售的时间序列（HAP）预测方法对铁路客运中、短期客运总量进行预测分析，以预测铁路客流总量，控制预测误差。经过实际应用，验证了该方法的科学性和合理性。
- 铁路 /
- 旅客运输 /
- 客流预测
Abstract: Passenger flow forecast is an important foundation for railway transport to arrange the transport capacity, adjust rail transport product. The science and accuracy of prediction would directly affect the transportation production, therefore to improve the accuracy and availability of passenger transport forecast is a hot research area. This article proposed a forecasting method HAP to analyze the total railway passenger transport volume for the middle-term and short-term railway passenger transport, forecast the total railway passenger flow and control the prediction error. The application test proved that HAP was a valid method to forecast the total railway passenger flow.
- railway /
- passenger transport /
- passenger flow forecast

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