Abstract: Passenger flow forecast is an important foundation for railway transport to arrange the transport capacity, adjust rail transport product. The science and accuracy of prediction would directly affect the transportation production, therefore to improve the accuracy and availability of passenger transport forecast is a hot research area. This article proposed a forecasting method HAP to analyze the total railway passenger transport volume for the middle-term and short-term railway passenger transport, forecast the total railway passenger flow and control the prediction error. The application test proved that HAP was a valid method to forecast the total railway passenger flow.