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基于候补购票的铁路旅客出行需求挖掘方法研究

Railway passenger travel demand mining method based on candidate ticket purchase

  • 摘要: 针对铁路旅客出行需求受票额能力限制而难以准确估计的问题,引入候补购票数据,研究铁路旅客出行需求挖掘的方法。梳理了候补购票和出行需求的关系,依据业务规则和旅客选择对候补购票行为进行分类,挖掘旅客的预售出行需求;结合实名制数据和闸机刷卡数据标定旅客实际行程,从而挖掘旅客最终出行需求的上下限。选取北京—南京的城市OD(Origin - Destination)进行验证分析,结果表明,与既有的候补需求统计规则相比,最终出行需求能够与闸机推算的实际行程需求保持相似规律,更具合理性,为客运需求预测和铁路日常营销分析等工作提供了科学的基础数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: In response to the problem of inaccurate estimation of railway passenger travel demand due to limited by ticket capacity, this paper introduced candidate ticket purchase data to study the railway passenger travel demand mining method. The paper sorted out the relationship between candidate ticket purchasing and travel demand, classified candidate ticket purchasing behavior based on business rules and passenger choices, mined passengers' pre-sale travel needs, and calibrated passengers' actual itineraries based on real name registration data and gate card swiping data, thereby mined the upper and lower limits of passengers' final travel demand. The paper selected the urban OD (Origin - Destination) of Beijing - Nanjing for verification analysis. The results show that compared with the existing candidate demand statistical rules, the final travel demand can maintain a similar pattern to the actual travel demand calculated by the gate, which is more reasonable and provides scientific basic data support for passenger demand forecasting and railway daily marketing analysis.

     

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