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基于双重差分法的铁路客运浮动票价实施效果评价方法研究

Evaluation method for implementation effect of railway floating passenger ticket prices based on Difference-in-Differences approach

  • 摘要: 为解决铁路客运浮动票价实施与列车运营成效评估过程中存在的潜在内生性问题,提高评估结果的科学性与有效性,提出一种基于双重差分法的浮动票价实施效果评估模型。通过选取不同方向的4条具有代表性的高速铁路线路进行实证分析,在线性回归模型中验证了浮动票价实施效果的显著性,实现了浮动票价策略对铁路客运运营效果影响的定量评价。该方法可为铁路客运管理部门明确政策实施成效、精准施策,以及增运增收提供有效的管理手段与决策支持。

     

    Abstract: To address potential endogeneity issues in the implementation of floating fares for railway passenger transportation and the evaluation of train operation effectiveness, and thereby improve the scientific rigor and validity of the evaluation results, this paper proposed an evaluation model for the implementation effect of floating fares based on the Difference-in-Differences method. By selecting four representative high-speed railway lines in different directions for empirical analysis, the paper verified the significant impact of floating fare implementation using a linear regression model, and implemented a quantitative evaluation of how floating fare strategies affect railway passenger operation performance. This method can provide effective management tools and decision support for railway passenger transportation management departments to clarify policy implementation effects, formulate and implement targeted policies, and increase transportation volume and revenue.

     

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