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基于公交地铁组合出行的旅客公交出行链补全策略研究

Completion strategies of passengers public transport travel chain based on combination travel of bus and subway

  • 摘要: 针对旅客公交下车站点数据缺失问题,提出融合公交与地铁刷卡数据的旅客公交出行链三级补全策略。该补全策略包括换乘行程链补全策略、公交出行链补全预测模型和最大概率下车预测模型共三个级别。利用同日及隔日换乘场景下的空间位置约束补全常规公交下车点;引入改进基于密度的聚类算法DBSCAN(Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise),结合加权几何中心构建公交下车站点优化模型;基于公交线路下车概率分布构建最大概率下车模型,通过该三级补全策略实现公交下车站点全流程补全体系的搭建。基于真实出行数据进行试验,结果表明,所提的补全策略可使公交出行链补全准确率达到92.5%,较传统算法准确率提高10%以上,且超80%的误差站点集中于实际站点±1站范围内,证明了其在准确率和鲁棒性方面的优越性。

     

    Abstract: This paper proposed a three-level completion strategy for the passenger public transport travel chain that integrated bus and subway card swiping data to address the problem of missing data at the public transport stop. This completion strategy included three levels: transfer itinerary chain completion strategy, public transport travel chain completion prediction model, and maximum probability disembarkation prediction model. The paper utilized spatial position constraints in the same day and next day transfer scenarios to complete the conventional public transport drop off points, introduced an improved density based clustering algorithm DBSCAN(Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise), combined weighted geometric centers to construct an optimization model for public transport stop points. Based on the probability distribution of bus routes getting off, the paper constructed a maximum probability getting off model. Through this three-level completion strategy, the paper implemented the construction of a full process completion system for public transport stop points. The results of experiments based on real travel data show that the proposed completion strategy can implement a completion accuracy of 92.5% for the public transport travel chain, which is more than 10% higher than the accuracy of traditional algorithms. Moreover, over 80% of the error stations are concentrated within ± 1 station range of actual stations. It proves its superiority in accuracy and robustness.

     

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