Research on capacity adjustment of railway transportation system for emergency disposal of passenger flow outburst during Beijing Olympic Winter Games
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摘要: 客流分布特征及规律是铁路客运运输组织的依据，根据客流状态及时调整运力配置，充分满足旅客出行需求，铁路主要的运营目标。京张高铁目前已投入运营，并将成为北京冬奥会铁路运输系统。文章基于京张高铁历史客流数据和已公布的冬奥会赛事日程信息，对冬奥会期间崇礼和延庆赛区的基本客流构成和特征进行分析和预测；分析冬奥会赛事期间突发客流成因及形成过程，确定了客流密度分级定义，以对客流密度进行分级监测和预警，准确把握铁路运输系统面临的客流压力大小；分别从客流和运力利用状况两个角度，定义冬奥会突发客流预警指标，提出实现突发客流与铁路运力相匹配的应急措施，实现冬奥会期间突发客流应急处理闭环管理。Abstract: Passenger flow distribution characteristics and rules are the basis of railway passenger traffic organization and it is one of the main operational objectives of the railway to adjust the allocation of transport capacity for fully meeting the passenger travel needs according to the passenger flow status timely. The Beijing-Zhangjiajang high-speed railway is now in operation and will serve as the rail transportation system for the Beijing Olympic Winter Games. Based on the historical passenger flow data of Beijing-Zhangjiakou high-speed railway and the published event schedule information of the Games, the basic passenger flow composition and characteristics of Chongli and Yanqing competition areas during the Olympic Winter Games are analyzed and forecast. Based on the analysis of the causes and formation process of passenger flow outburst during the Olympic Winter Games, the definition of graded passenger flow density is determined for carrying out graded monitoring and early warning of passenger flow density and accurately grasping the passenger flow pressure faced by the railway transportation system. From the two perspectives of passenger flow and transport capacity utilization, the early warning indicators of unexpected passenger flow for the Olympic Winter Games are defined and the emergency measures to match unexpected passenger flow and railway transport capacity are put forward so as to realize the closed-loop management of emergency response of unexpected passenger flow during the Olympic Winter Games.
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表 1 崇礼、延庆赛区场馆EvtConTm分布
场馆EvtConTm分组/min 崇礼赛区/次 延庆赛区/次 0 ≤EvtConTm＜30 26 0 30 ≤EvtConTm＜60 10 1 60 ≤EvtConTm＜90 9 4 90 ≤EvtConTm＜120 2 5 EvtConTm≥120 10 9 
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